This is the price you pay to your local gas utility for the cost of transporting or delivering natural gas from the City Gate to your home or business regardless of whether the gas is purchased from the utility or an AGS. Natural gas utilities offering AGS choice programs have additional information regarding the charges on your gas bill at the following links. The delivery of natural gas to your house or business will not be interrupted when you switch gas suppliers. Regardless of your choice of supplier, your local gas utility will continue to deliver the natural gas to your house or business. Residential and small business customers in some areas of Illinois have the choice to purchase their gas supply from their utility or an Alternative Gas Supplier (AGS). Indeed, it is hard to believe that the official first day of winter just occurred on December 21, so natural gas prices will keep riding the roller coaster.Your natural gas bill has three main components – the delivery service charge, gas supply charge and taxes. " Markets to Enter Christmas Lull Risk of Volatility in Thin Trade." During these final days, prompt month prices increased 14% in 2017, 17% in 2016, and 23% in 2015. Thin trading (lower volumes) and less experienced traders taking over for seasoned veterans on vacation make large price swings more possible during the last 10 days of the year. Prices jumped from $3.19 to $3.63 on January 29.Īnother added uncertainty now is that December is the most unique month. To be sure though, the 2018 Bomb Cyclone, which lead to the largest storage withdrawal ever at 359 Bcf, actually did not surge prices all that much, with prompt month only rising from $2.91 on December 28 to $3.08 on January 11. Despite historic cold early in the month, gas prices did not really start to rise until January 19, when there was a forecast for a potential second Bomb Cyclone to start February - one that never occurred. The market is tight enough to rally on any sustained cold signal. gas market is whether a potential "Polar Vortex 2.0" or "Bomb Cyclone 2.0" this winter could spike prices even more than the Bomb Cyclone did last winter. gas demand typically jumps 40-50% in winter over summer.īut, with some warmer temperatures, coming withdrawals are projected to be lower than normal. For example, over the next two weeks, we see pulls of 45 Bcf and 69 Bcf compared to respective 121 Bcf and 107 Bcf for the five-year average. As far as how much gas we have in the ground to help meet higher winter demand, we have sunk from being 15% below the five-year average to now having a 21% deficit. gas storage situation has gotten worse since November 1. The 141 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 14 was lower than the 166 Bcf pull for the same period last year and the five-year average of 144 Bcf. Natural gas prices have been on a wild ride in recent weeks. In fact, there was a 10-12 day span earlier this month where no blue at all was on the NOAA 6-10, 8-14 day forecasts, just the orange and red that indicate above-average temperatures expected across the country. It was a cold start to December, but things have warmed up a bit. November went down as one of the coldest and snowiest on record, and Res/Comm demand, the most critical sector this time of year for gas prices because it measures our heating needs, averaged 37 Bcf/d for the month, compared to 31 Bcf/d in November 2017.Īt 134 Bcf, our first withdrawal of winter reported the day before Thanksgiving was not just above expectations but over five times larger than normal.Īll this action inflated current winter pricing, with traders long waiting for any change and opportunity in market conditions. While near-term pricing has been pushed up, the deferred longer-term gas contracts remain pretty low. For example, pricing for January 2020 gas pricing has been 20-25% lower than January 2019.
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